73Zhu Baoliang China has not entered the liquidity trap|Zhu Baoliang China has not entered the liquidity trap9

Zhu Baoliang: at present, China has not entered the liquidity trap author Zhu Baoliang (National Information Center, director of economic forecasting, China and the new interim experts) whether there is a liquidity trap in China? The answer is: does not exist! Cause this problem has been widely discussed in the background: the narrow money (M1) and broad money (M2) growth of the "price scissors" in July further expanded to 15.2 percentage points, showed that companies seem more willing to demand deposits lying in the account and not for business expansion. I made three judgments: first, China’s monetary policy is still effective. China did not enter the liquidity trap. Liquidity trap needs to meet two conditions: first, the short-term market interest rates fell to zero; the two is the marginal rate of return on investment is zero. This increases the money supply does not further reduce interest rates, businesses and residents will not increase investment and consumption, resulting in liquidity trap. At present, these two kinds of situations have not appeared in our country, the short-term market interest rate of our country is still about 2.3%, and the marginal rate of return is about 4%. Compared with the situation abroad, China’s monetary policy is still effective. From the international point of view, when the normal monetary policy is no longer valid, quantitative easing and other unconventional monetary policy came into being. Until the latter derived from quantitative qualitative easing, the central bank directly buy a bond or a stock currency mechanism. For example, the Fed’s direct purchase of Fannie and Freddie (Fannie and Freddie) bonds, the Bank of Japan to buy stocks directly put money to the enterprise, and even take a negative interest rate policy. It can be seen, even if some countries to implement zero interest rates or negative interest rates, the role of monetary policy has been very small, unconventional monetary policy can still play a role. In this regard, a view that the quantification of qualitative easing of monetary policy to asset prices, so as to drive the stock, real estate, the bond market actively, improve the enterprise’s balance sheet, to promote the growth of investment and consumption. Second, the marginal effect of monetary policy is declining. Around the world, some countries and regions have entered a liquidity trap, including Switzerland, 6 countries have entered the era of negative interest rates. Among them, the typical example is japan. Japan’s fiscal deficit is equivalent to 4 times the country’s GDP, which makes it into the monetary policy is useless, fiscal policy can not be used, the embarrassing situation. In China, the marginal return on investment continues to decline. According to the calculation, in 2015, China investment reached 55 trillion last year, more than 29 trillion of the amount of fixed capital formation, but the new output is less than 5 trillion, is formed in every 10 yuan of investment, or capital increase of 6.7 yuan, 1 yuan to output. The decline of the investment efficiency leads to the decrease of the effect of monetary policy, which makes China’s monetary policy is in a dilemma. If you continue to add money, funds are likely not to enter the real economy, but the choice of real estate, fried bonds, fried goods, which led to a new round of asset price bubbles. If we do not expand the currency, the economic growth rate will decline rapidly. At present, the adoption of prudent monetary policy, is no longer the choice of large-scale currency is undoubtedly correct. Third, in the continuation of the theory

47Magic what constellation the children turn their fans sister (Photos)|Magic what constellation the children turn their fans sister (Photos)7

Magic: what constellation the children turn their fans sister (Photos) best friend fifth: Pisces Pisces solution: with good attitude, sincerely communicate with each other, and not to reach your enemy to force yourself to how to. Pisces are called "stupid and naive", because they tend to treat everyone as a good person, and if there is anything wrong with others, the responsibility is mostly on their own. This was embrace responsibility practices, so that they need to connect with others, there is no need to adjust the mentality of the possibility of. It is true that Pisces, when viewed by others as the enemy, always gives priority to their responsibilities and sees what they can do to improve their relationship. While the other is even beginning to take the initiative to your doubts and resist, but for a long time, will gradually shaken, because Pisces are all considered standing in her position to. This kind of "fix" behavior even if the moment can not be understood by each other, but a long time will always have an effect. Not to mention this but with full sincerity to your enemy, but do not succeed? [Pisces] [Taurus] [Libra] [cancer]