September economic and financial data Outlook new credit or far more than expected

September economic and financial data Outlook: new credit or far more than expected Sina Financial News on September 29th, the economic and financial data in September 2016. According to CITIC macro analysis, the new credit in September or more than expected to 1 trillion and 400 billion, up sharply qoq. The bank’s internal quarter assessment pressure to "technical" Chong loan is more obvious, the needs of the real economy is still weak, and non bank loans or a similar bill last month to occupy a certain proportion, the mortgage continues to high growth, but the marginal probability of a larger decline in future. Social financing by the RMB loans and corporate bonds increased by high, or more than expected growth of 1 trillion and 700 billion. M2 because the base effect disappeared or rose slightly to 12%, is expected to narrow the price scissors, but corporate money to investment will still no improvement. CITIC macro analysis, said the industrial added value and fixed asset investment are expected to drop slightly. Consumption growth will be about the rate of decline; exports continue to negative growth; real estate investment will fall; financial follow-up weakness. High frequency data show industrial production activity in September kinetic energy has declined, is expected in September industrial added value increased by 6.1%, down by 0.2 percentage points compared to August. Real estate investment growth in August after the high will fall back; manufacturing investment in the short term will maintain a low growth, the lack of improvement in the driving force of the fourth quarter of infrastructure investment growth is difficult to continue to maintain the growth rate of more than 20%. Fixed asset investment is expected to grow by 7.9% in September. Vegetable prices pull CPI rise, PPI continued to decline narrowed. Affected by seasonal rain and cooling, vegetable prices rose sharply. High frequency data show that the vegetable price index rose 31.1%, is expected to drive the CPI an overall upward by up to 1.7% in August 1.3%. Narrow pig price callback, non food prices rose slightly. Black colored small price shocks, the price could rise sharply, or driven by PPI from August -0.8% continued to rise to -0.4%, the end of the zero period. CITIC macro believes that foreign trade is difficult to improve. The external demand is still sluggish, the RMB effective exchange rate index is still high, is expected in the short term export will continue the trend of negative growth, is expected in September exports ($diameter) growth of -4.5%. September imports will not be significantly improved, but due to the low base last year, the reason will lead to a rise in import growth, imports are expected in September (U.S. dollars) increased by 2.5%. Retail or trend down. The three major factors restricting the consumption growth picked up: 9-12 month base rise, which will restrict the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods year-on-year rise; secondly, the growth rate of real estate sales decline will lead to household appliances, building materials and other related consumer goods growth ushered in the fall; finally, September industrial added value growth rate fell about highs will boost consumption the growth rate of. September total retail sales of social consumer goods grew by 10.5%, down by 0.1 percentage points compared with August. GDP growth or remain stable. 3 quarter GDP growth of up to 6.7%, unchanged from the previous two quarters. From the industrial point of view, the 3 quarter of the industrial added value is expected to continue to grow at more than 6%. From the point of view of the service industry, 7, August non manufacturing P theory相关的主题文章: