可以让美联储更好地履行最终借款人的职责 上海欧华职业技术学院

Bernanke "big" Yellen balance sheet can not be reduced in Jackson Hole Yellen’s speech said publicly: following the Fed’s target is to go back to 08 years ago the interest rate control system. Because of the Fed’s balance sheet size and rate control system has become two sides of a coin, Yellen suggests, is that reduced the Fed’s huge balance sheet. But Yellen’s former leader, Bernanke, believes that maintaining the current large scale balance sheet is more in line with the interests of the federal reserve. But to understand the debate between Yellen and Bernanke on the balance sheet, first of all, we need to understand the relationship between the Fed’s balance sheet and its interest rate control system. The balance sheet and interest rate control system expanded the balance sheet and the excess reserve of the bank, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve increased from $900 billion in 2007 to $4 trillion and 500 billion today, and the increment mainly came from QE. Although the Federal Reserve has stopped buying debt since October 2014, it left 2 trillion and 500 billion treasury bonds and 1 trillion and 700 billion government guaranteed mortgage backed bonds on its balance sheet. A huge amount of debt corresponds to a huge amount of assets. Before the crisis, the Fed’s liabilities were mostly currency, the notes and coins issued. Today, although the currency still accounts for $1 trillion and 400 billion at the end of the debt, it is no longer the largest subject, and the largest debt account has become the excess reserves of banks deposited in the federal reserve. The bank’s excess reserves at the Fed now stands at about $2 trillion and 400 billion, compared to only $2 million in 07 years. After all, the expansion of excess reserves is actually caused by QE: the Fed’s "printing money" to buy bonds from the private sector, the private sector funds after obtaining the funds deposited in the bank system, then the bank will in turn these funds in the form of excess reserves to the fed. The interest rate control system changed 08 years ago, and the Fed affected the federal funds rate through the provision of excess bank reserves. But now, faced with huge reserves, fine-tuning the reserves has been unable to effectively control interest rates. Therefore, the Fed is currently mainly through adjusting the IOER:interest on excess reserves to pay the bank to achieve short-term interest rate purposes. The Federal Reserve also allows other non silver institutions, such as the IMF, to keep short-term funds at the Federal Reserve and get some interest for the sake of progress. The Fed called it RRP:overnight reverse repurchase. The current IOER interest rate of 0.5%, RRP interest rate of 0.25%, the combination of two interest rates, the federal funds rate successfully maintained within the scope of the current 0.25%-0.5%. The essence of Yellen and Bernanke "controversy" because of the Fed’s balance sheet size and control of short-term interest rates has become two sides of a coin, so Yellen said to go back to 08 years ago, the interest rate control system, we must have a much smaller than the current balance sheet, in order to effectively control the change the supply of bank reserves.

伯南克“叫板”耶伦 资产负债表不能缩耶伦在Jackson Hole的讲话中公开表示:美联储接下来的目标是要回到08年前的利率控制体系。因美联储资产负债表大小与其利率控制体系已成为一个硬币的两面,耶伦的言下之意,是主张缩减美联储庞大的资产负债表。但耶伦的前领导伯南克却认为,维持当前大规模资产负债表不变,更加符合美联储的利益。但要理解耶伦和伯南克对资产负债表的“争论”,首先需要理解美联储资产负债表与其利率控制体系间的关系。资产负债表与利率控制体系膨胀的资产负债表和银行超额准备金美联储的资产负债表自2007年的9000亿美元增长到了如今的4.5万亿美元,增量主要来自于QE。虽然自2014年10月起,美联储已停止购债,但在资产负债表上留下了2.5万亿美国国债和1.7万亿政府担保的抵押贷款支持债券。与巨额资产对应的是巨额负债。在危机以前,美联储的负债主要是通货,也就是发行的纸币和硬币。如今,虽然通货在负债端仍占1.4万亿美元,但已不是最大的科目,最大的负债科目已变成银行存于美联储的超额储备金。银行在美联储超额准备金目前约有2.4万亿美元,而在07年这一科目上仅有200万美元。归根到底,超额准备金的膨胀实际上也是由QE造成的:美联储“印钞”向私人部门购买债券,私人部门获得资金以后将资金存于银行体系,然后银行反过来又将这些资金以超额准备金的形式存回了美联储。利率控制体系的变化在08年以前,美联储通过银行超额准备金的供给影响联邦基金利率。但如今面对巨额的准备金,像以往一样微调准备金已无法有效控制利率。所以,美联储目前主要通过调整付给银行的超额准备金利率(IOER:interest on excess reserves)来达到影响短期利率的目的。为了进步一保证控制效力,美联储还允许其他的非银机构如货币基金,将短期资金存于美联储并获得一定利息。美联储将这一操作称为隔夜逆回购(RRP:overnight reverse repurchase)。当前IOER利率为0.5%,RRP利率0.25%,两个利率组合使用,将联邦基金利率成功地维持在目前0.25%-0.5%的范围之内。耶伦和伯南克“争论”的实质因为美联储资产负债表大小与其控制短期利率的方式已成为一个硬币的两面,所以耶伦称要回到08年以前的利率控制体系,就必须拥有一个比现在小得多的资产负债表,才能有效地通过改变银行准备金的供给来控制利率。伯南克认为,实现这一目标的唯一方法是在合适的时机,停止滚动投资资产负债表上的到期债券,让资产负债表随着持有债券依次到期而“自然萎缩”。此外还要配合以逐步退出RRP。但伯南克认为,通过RRP利率来控制政策利率更为有效,但前提条件是拥有大规模资产负债表。华尔街见闻将伯南克的理由概括如下:首先,市场对于安全流动性好的资产有巨大需求,应由美联储来满足这些需求,而非私人部门。08年之前许多金融机构就通过“借短放长”的方式,用发行资产支持商票筹措来的短期资金,来购买长期风险资产。虽然这些短期资产满足了市场的需求,但一旦长期风险资产出现问题,为其提供融资的短期流动性会瞬间消失,这也是造成08年危机背后的机理。然而如果由美联储提供终极安全的短期资产,来满足市场需求,就不会出现这种问题。所以维持现有资金负债表规模,并扩大RRP应用范围,将有助于提升金融系统的稳定性。其二,08年之前的利率控制体系仍面临利率传导不畅的问题,因为美联储设定的目标利率未必可以通过银行和债券市场完全传导至整个经济体系。因此,通过维持现有资产负债表并通过RRP,美联储可以直接通过短期政策利率来影响证券市场,减少美联储在利率传导方面对于银行体系的依赖,因此可以比以往更加有效地达到通胀和就业目标。第三,维持现有庞大的资产负债表,可以让美联储更好地履行最终借款人的职责。在08年危机期间,因为向最终借款人“求救”是金融机构“撑不住”了的表现,所以即便美联储想要向经济体注入流动性扭转危机,金融机构也未必愿意接受,因此会错过扭转危机的最佳时机。但如果在非危机时刻,金融机构,特别是银行,本来就在美联储的资产负债表上留有巨额超额准备金,那在危机将要发生时,金融机构会更愿意使用自身存于美联储的超额准备金,在第一时间为经济注入流动性。更多精彩内容欢迎搜索关注微信公众号:腾讯财经(financeapp)。相关的主题文章: